基于视觉景观分析的哈尔滨历史城区容量控制研究

历史城区是城市区域中历史建筑保存最为完整、环境特色最为鲜明的区域。在城市更新的过程中,如何在保护历史建筑及环境的基础上,限定城区的合理容量是历史城区保护的核心任务。以哈尔滨南岗历史城区为例,结合城市设计理论及视觉景观分析方法,选定视觉景观控制要素,建立以景中视点与景外视点2个层级控制的分析框架,采取定性与定量分析相结合的方式对历史城区的容量进行评定,并从建筑高度和容积率指标方面对历史城区容量进行控制引导。     

武当山风景名胜区五龙宫景区风景 特质识别研究

风景特质评价(Landscape Character Assessment)作为一种管理风景变化的新工具,近年来受到了广泛关注。目前风景特质评价的研究对象多集中在国土尺度或自然乡野地,对于风景名胜区特质的识别研究尚属空白。介绍了风景特质评价的基本流程,尝试对武当山风景名胜区中的五龙宫景区进行风景特质识别,绘制了武当山风景名胜区的风景特质图,总结了英国风景特质评价作业体系的优缺点及研究局限,提出了今后的研究展望和建议     

作为公共政策的风景名胜区规划

：简要回顾中国风景名胜区规划的发展及体系特色,并对存在的问题进行了分析与总结。通过对公共政策的了解,结合国际上保护地管理规划经验,提出风景名胜区规划应该成为公共政策。认为在现有风景名胜区规划框架之下,单一目标和项目清单式的规划成果已无法满足社会发展的需求。提出在目前新的调整时期,风景名胜区规划体系亟须进化与改革,有必要重构风景名胜区的规划理论和体系,使规划能够满足社会发展和科学管理的需要。     

适用技术:西部地区构建和谐社会的技术基础

科学技术是第一生产力,是人类认识和改造世界的强大武器。和谐是社会主义的本质属性,是国家富强、民族振兴、人民幸福的重要保证。基于西部地区构建和谐社会的特殊性和复杂性,在科学发展观的指导下,西部地区构建和谐社会的技术理念应是发展适用技术。大力发展适用技术,是西部地区构建和谐社会的突破口和必然选择。"恭城模式"、"象州实践"和"和林格尔现象"等都是西部地区通过适用技术,构建和谐社会成功的典范;而"民勤县荒漠化"现象则主要是由于没有采用适用技术导致的。     

我国保税区国际物流发展对策研究

我国的保税区是层次最高的对外开放区域。保税区发展国际物流是适应经济全球化发展趋势的必然选择。但目前我国保税区物流业尚存业务需求量小、服务水平低、区内外物流网络衔接差,运作不顺畅等问题。应以创新保税物流园区海关监管模式、全面实施环保物流管理、构筑国际物流高速公路、建立国际物流信息交易系统及发展第四方物流等强化服务功能。     

Comparative Urbanism and the ‘Asian City': Implications for Research and Theory

While voices in the comparative urbanism literature call for researchers to approach comparison with more experimental and critical methodologies, there remains no consensus on how to design and realize these studies. This essay examines the implications of comparative urbanism for researching the ‘Asian City'. Given the critique of existing modes of comparison embedded in recent calls for a new comparative urbanism, researchers are faced with a number of pressing questions: How do we approach this ‘regional' topic in a way that both resists categorizing the ‘Asian City' as an exotic ‘other', elevating it onto a mythical pedestal, yet appreciates its differences, localisms and unique ‘cosmopolitan vernacular' (Clifford, 1997; Werbner and Modood, 1997)? This essay thus highlights the multiple challenges of applying the comparative lens to the ‘Asian City', arguing that broader conceptualizations of the ‘Asian City' help to address the dangers in isolating Asian research into its own canon of parochial urban theory and offering a greater diversity of possibilities for justifying case selection in comparative approaches. In doing so, we hope that this essay responds to the comparative turn by illuminating to some extent its inherent complexity and methodological challenges.     

元阳旅游型村落控制性发展研究

通过梳理世界文化遗产区西递村的开发与保护经验,结合元阳发展的现状,对旅游型村落发展提出控制要素的研究。对于遗产区村落的开发,既是当地经济发展的需求,又是世界遗产保护的途径。控制好保护与发展之间的平衡点,利用旅游业带动当地村落的发展,通过要素进行发展中的控制是本文主要论证之处。     

Land use changes in protected areas and their future: The legal effectiveness of landscape protection

It is expected that the application of a restrictive legal instrument would be an important barrier to human pressures on protected areas in Brazil. One aspect that remains to be determined is whether the applied restrictions will be related to the quality of scenarios at the borders of protected areas. The objective of this work was to analyze the capacity for minimizing the impacts on two protected areas and to identify the effective function of the barrier imposed by an environmental legal border. The borders of two protected areas, the Despraiado Sustainable Development Reserve and the Jureia-Itatins State Ecological Station, as well as the corresponding buffer zone were studied. The historical evolution of the land cover/land use of these regions was analyzed by dividing the regions into 900 m² hexagonal units. The scenarios for the years 1962, 1980 and 2007 were overlaid for each hexagon. The hexagons were classified according to the possible effects of conservation, and the results were quantified in terms of the frequency of land use and ecological flows. A simulation of future land use in 2028 was performed using the Kappa index, Markov chain modeling, multi-criteria analysis and cellular automata modeling. Based on the trend for the last 45 years, a very dynamic interaction at the legal boundaries was identified; in certain cases, either conservation or degradation were stimulated, and the intended objectives of legal environmental measures were never fulfilled. The simulation showed that by 2028, the frontiers of these protected areas will retain less than 10% of the natural vegetation cover, and 43% of this area will be covered with banana plantations.     

Professional forecasters and real-time forecasting with a DSGE model

This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets and Wouters (2012), estimated on euro area data. It investigates the extent to which the inclusion of forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. We consider two approaches for conditioning on such information. Under the “noise” approach, the mean professional forecasts are assumed to be noisy indicators of the rational expectations forecasts implied by the DSGE model. Under the “news” approach, it is assumed that the forecasts reveal the presence of expected future structural shocks in line with those estimated in the past. The forecasts of the DSGE model are compared with those from a Bayesian VAR model, an AR(1) model, a sample mean and a random walk.     

山东省苹果种植面积的时空演变特征分析

[目的]利用1978~2015年山东省苹果种植相关数据,实证分析山东省苹果种植面积的时空演变规律及其内在影响因素。[方法]从省域、区域、地市层面分析山东省苹果种植面积的时空演变规律,并运用多元线性回归模型实证分析山东省苹果种植面积变动的具体影响因素。[结果]山东省苹果种植面积从1978年的18.330万hm~2增至2015年的29.968万hm~2,总体增加,并以1995年为拐点先增后减,呈"倒U"形分布。从区域层面看,胶东半岛苹果种植面积稳步增加,泰沂山区、鲁西鲁北平原苹果种植面积持续萎缩,直接导致山东省苹果种植面积的不断减少和苹果主产区向胶东半岛的迁移。从地市层面看,山东省17地市中仅有胶东半岛的烟台、威海两地市苹果种植面积有所增加,其余15地市苹果种植面积均有不同程度的减少。说明山东省苹果主产区呈东进西退、北进南退的变迁特征。[结论]山东省苹果种植面积变动是资源禀赋、种植成本、种植业内部比较效益、种植传统和种植惯性、非农就业机会、非农就业收入、国家政策、地区政策、技术进步等众多因素共同作用的结果。基础设施条件、种植传统和种植惯性、非农就业机会、非农就业收入、地区政策的影响更为显著。其中,种植传统与种植惯性、地区政策对山东省苹果种植面积产生显著正向影响;非农就业机会和非农就业收入产生显著负向影响;基础设施条件向耕地的倾斜也产生显著不利影响。而种植成本、种植比较效益、国家政策、技术进步等因素的影响并不显著。